A-50 / IL-22M was it Friendly Fire?
Did Russia shoot down it's own C4ISR planes over the Azov Sea?
Let’s have a look at the alleged A-50 / IL-22M shootdowns!
TLDR; Could it be friendly fire? YES! But it’s not that simple!
Before you get too far into this article, I would suggest you read the previous article here.
This map is our magnum opus, it’s the product of a massive satellite imagery bill and months of time! Please consider a paid subscription to help offset the costs!
The Map
Range contours around known S-300P / 400 sites in shades of gray.
S-300V ranges see disclaimer on map light red circles*
PAC-2 contour 150 km from the front line blue.
Frontline from UA Control Map dark red.
Russia has S-300P/400 batteries in the following locations.
Olinivika
Belbek Air Base
Sevastopol
Feodosia (Mountain top site)
Kerch West (Protecting the Kerch Bridge)
Kerch East (Protecting the Kerch Bridge)
Dzhankoy Air Base
Rostov Airport
Rostov South
Taganrog Air Base (South Air Base)
Anapa (Near the airport where the IL-22M made an emergency landing)
Novorossiysk
Hvardiiske Air Base
Sochi
Russian occupied parts of Georgia aka Abkhazia
Notes: *I have omitted Yevpatoria from the map because it is currently MIA. FYI the Yevpatoria site wouldn’t change anything about this analysis.
Russia has many more S-300 / 400 sites around the country, I have only include the sites relevant to this shoot down.
S-300P or S-400?
The A-50 should have been connected to the same network as the S-300P/400 sites. Air defense systems would need to know the precise location of the A-50 in order to pull off a cooperative engagement using the A-50 radar to guide a 48N6DM missile. Russia has been talking about this capability for some time now, it’s still unclear how this Russian cooperative engagement system works. It could be a simple hand off, or it could be much more complex where the A-50 controls TELs on the ground via datalink or vice versa! We aren’t sure at this time!
I find it very unlikely to be S-300P / S-400 purely due to the fact coordination must take place between the A-50 and S-300P / 400 batteries on the ground.
S-300V, S-300VM, S-300VMD, S-300V4
S-300V is a totally different system than S-300P, it was designed from the ground up as a highly mobile tracked anti-missile system. S-300V even fires different missiles, the 9M82 and 9M83 of various mods.
We have seen S-300V systems operating around Luhansk in the last few months. The problem we have is twofold. 1. S-300V is highly mobile 2. The open-source ranges for 9M82 and 9M83 are wildly incorrect, unfortunately the open-source data is all we have to go by! I went ahead and put the open-source ranges on the map, beware of the extreme ranges seem to be bogus marketing fluff!
Speculation: It’s very unlikely S-300V would be used to engage aircraft, S-300V especially modern variants were built in small quantities and it’s primarily an anti-missile system!
What about BUK?
BUK is hard to quantify also, with the system being highly mobile it could be operating anywhere around the periphery of the Azov Sea.
Buk makes the most sense from a friendly fire standpoint. The system is mobile, the IFF systems in the older TELARs seem to have issues or doesn’t exist. The use of the 9S18M NATO Snow Drift radar or other networked EWRs (Early Warning Radars) adds tremendous SA (Situational Awareness) for the Buk operators. However, If networking systems are not functioning the radar in the TELAR or the 9S36 which is essentially the TELARs radar on a stick can be used with much less SA!
The shootdown of MH-17 by a Buk system speaks volumes about the lack or problems with IFF systems, civilian and military. We have seen Russia shoot down its own aircraft in the past, however we do not have any evidence that Buk was involved in the A-50 / IL-22m shootdowns at this time.
Pantsir or Tor?
Pantsir NATO SA-22 Greyhound has a 20-40 km range depending on variant.
Tor NATO SA-16 Gauntlet has a 12-15 km range depending on variant.
Speculation: While Pantsir and Tor would have enough range if they were parked at the tip of the Obytichna Spit. The idea Russia would shoot down an A-50 with SHORAD (SHort Range Air Defense) seems very unlikely to me! Remember we have evidence of Russian aircraft flying orbits over the Obytichna Spit for at least 3 months!
What about radar coverage from known Russian GBAD (Ground Based Air Defense) sites?
I have included Cambridge Pixel radar LOS (Line of Sight) plots of the primary sites covering the Azov Sea. Without a doubt Russian Air Defense has radar and air defense coverage of the suspected shoot down location!
Conclusion!
None of the evidence is conclusive! We can only speculate to the cause of the A-50 shoot down! It seems unlikely S-300P/S-400 would have engaged a supporting asset, the A-50 should have been connected to the IADS (Integrated Air Defense System)! BUK is the most likely system, if this incident was friendly fire. The difference with BUK is the vertical command structure. BUK tends to be operated by ground forces vs air defense forces.
Pantsir and Tor make don’t make any sense in my opinion, it seems unlikely they would shoot a plane over Russian controlled territory without going way up the chain of command for verification. We can’t rule out those systems, but they seem VERY unlikely to me! 5% or less.
If I had to bet this is what my current thinking is! PLEASE USE WITH CAUTION!
Here are the damage pics of the IL-22M and a stock photo of an A-50
You made it this far, have a cookie!
Video analysis for paid members! Thank you so much for the support!