How was the A-50 shot down?
It appears Russia has been flying racetracks near Berdyansk since at least October 2.
It appears Russia has been flying racetracks near Berdyansk since at least October 2. From what we know now, it's likely these are A-50 and or IL-22 contrails in this Sentinel-3 IR timelapse. I'm aware of the claims of an elaborate trap, it seems more like a standard orbit for the A-50 but it’s still unclear how this transpired and Tom could easily be correct!
Back in 1999 the US lost a F-117 to a Serbian S-125 SA-3 GOA system. One of the primary factors was using the same air corridors over and over.
The release of the radar video by CINCAFU Telegram channel gives us a hint that Ukraine was watching these planes for quite some time. Ukraine would have known about the pattern of operation. We saw two radar systems brought near the line of contact towards the end of November. This includes the advanced Ukroboronprom 80K6M S-Band phased array radar that can easily detect large RCS targets, like the A-50 out to 400km assuming line of sight. A ST-68U which is a highly capable 3D radar perfectly capable of tracking the A-50 at 200km+ was destroyed near the LOC.
Looking at the Line-Of-Sight LOS analysis of geolocated location in Kherson of the damaged 80K6M, this shows the A-50 would need to be at least 3500m in altitude to be seen by a radar at this location. I have no idea where current Ukranian radars were located for this shoot down. This was a logical location to watch the south and parts of the Azov from, However it’s not the only location that can provide this coverage.
I don't feel like the A-50 was lured closer to the line of contact due to the strikes in Crimea. To me it seems more likely Ukraine patiently watched and waited for the right time to take out these planes. The strikes in Crimea served to force the A-50 into the air but it doesn't look like it was forced closer.
My opinion on what we are seeing Crimea is simple a wholesale roll back of Russian air defense assets! The strikes haven’t target the systems as much as the C4ISR nodes lately!
What Ukrainan systems have the range for this shoot down?
5V28 from S-200 300 km in 228 seconds (test data below)
Something above my pay grade! Unlikely 5% change IMO
We are still digging into this and will post updates as we source evidence!
Yes a S-200 5V28 test that went wrong! Shot down a Tu-154 headed to Russia! It was a very long range shoot down! Will have more to come on S-200 soon!
There was a shoot down of an Israeli Airliner over the Black Sea years ago by SA-5/S-200, don't recall the missile variant.