The Arithmetic of Life and Death: Strategic Targeting with the CARVER Method

Learning the CARVER Method Through the Lens of Kursk and Dnipro's Calculated Precision

The Arithmetic of Life and Death: Strategic Targeting with the CARVER Method

Learning the CARVER Method Through the Lens of Kursk and Dnipro's Calculated Precision

Introduction

Strategic targeting is both an art and a science. The decisions behind which targets to prioritize can determine the success or failure of a mission. Enter the CARVER method—a systematic tool designed to analyze and rank potential targets based on six criteria: Criticality, Accessibility, Recuperability, Vulnerability, Effect, and Recognizability.

This post will guide you step-by-step through using the CARVER matrix with two recent examples from the Ukraine-Russia conflict:

1. The Storm Shadow missile strike on a command post in Kursk.

2. The Russian missile attack on the PA Pivdenmash aerospace facility in Dnipro.

By the end, you’ll understand not just how the CARVER method works but also how to apply it to real-world scenarios.

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What is the CARVER Method?

The CARVER matrix evaluates targets based on the following six factors, scored on a scale from 1 (low) to 5 (high):

1. Criticality: How essential is the target to the adversary’s operations?

2. Accessibility: How easy is it to reach and engage the target?

3. Recuperability: How quickly can the adversary repair or replace the target?

4. Vulnerability: How susceptible is the target to an attack?

5. Effect: What is the impact of neutralizing the target on the adversary’s broader objectives?

6. Recognizability: How easy is it to identify and locate the target under operational conditions?

Let’s see how this works in practice.

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Example 1: The Kursk Command Post Strike

On November 20, 2024, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post in the Kursk region using British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. The target was an underground facility used for coordinating Russian and North Korean military operations.

https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/10651

Step-by-Step CARVER Analysis

\(\small \begin{array}{|c|c|c|} \hline \textbf{Factor} & \textbf{Explanation} & \textbf{Score} \\ \hline \text{Criticality} & \text{The command post was vital for Russian military coordination.} & 5 \\ \hline \text{Accessibility} & \text{Located in Russian territory but within Storm Shadow missile range.} & 3 \\ \hline \text{Recuperability} & \text{Underground facilities take significant time and resources to rebuild.} & 4 \\ \hline \text{Vulnerability} & \text{While hardened, precision-guided missiles can penetrate such structures.} & 4 \\ \hline \text{Effect} & \text{Neutralizing the facility disrupted operations across the region.} & 5 \\ \hline \text{Recognizability} & \text{The target’s location and function were well-documented.} & 5 \\ \hline \end{array}\)

Total Score:

\(\small \text{Total CARVER Score} = 5 + 3 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 5 = 26\)

Key Insights:

• The high Criticality and Effect scores make this a strategic target.

• The moderate Accessibility score reflects the operational challenge of striking deep into Russian territory.

  

  Satellite imagery @mt_anderson on X 6:42 PM · Nov 25, 2024

Example 2: The PA Pivdenmash Strike in Dnipro

On November 21, 2024, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting PA Pivdenmash, a major Ukrainian aerospace manufacturer producing spacecraft and launch vehicles.

Step-by-Step CARVER Analysis

\(\small \begin{array}{|c|c|c|} \hline \textbf{Factor} & \textbf{Explanation} & \textbf{Score} \\ \hline \text{Criticality} & \text{PA Pivdenmash is critical for Ukraine’s defense and space industries.} & 5 \\ \hline \text{Accessibility} & \text{ICBMs ensured reach despite significant distance.} & 5 \\ \hline \text{Recuperability} & \text{Specialized manufacturing facilities take years to restore.} & 4 \\ \hline \text{Vulnerability} & \text{Industrial facilities are highly vulnerable to missile strikes.} & 5 \\ \hline \text{Effect} & \text{The strike disrupted aerospace production, affecting Ukraine’s defense.} & 5 \\ \hline \text{Recognizability} & \text{The facility’s location and significance were well-known.} & 5 \\ \hline \end{array}\)

Total Score:

\(\small \text{Total CARVER Score} = 5 + 5 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 29\)

Key Insights:

• The high Accessibility, Vulnerability, and Effect scores highlight why this target was prioritized.

• The Recuperability score suggests long-term disruption, justifying the resource investment in the strike.

@SamDoak5 on X 6:42 PM Nov 25, 2024

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Comparison of the Two Strikes

\(\tiny \begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline \textbf{Target} & \textbf{Criticality} & \textbf{Accessibility} & \textbf{Recuperability} & \textbf{Vulnerability} & \textbf{Effect} & \textbf{Recognizability} & \textbf{Total} \\ \hline \text{Kursk Command Post} & 5 & 3 & 4 & 4 & 5 & 5 & 26 \\ \hline \text{PA Pivdenmash Facility} & 5 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 29 \\ \hline \end{array}\)

What We Learn:

• PA Pivdenmash scored higher overall, reflecting its critical role in Ukraine’s defense and the ease of access with long-range missiles.

• The Kursk Command Post, while slightly lower-scoring, remained a key target due to its operational importance.

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How to Apply the CARVER Method

Here’s how you can use the CARVER matrix in your own strategic analyses:

1. Define the Targets: List all potential targets relevant to your mission.

2. Score Each Factor: Assign scores (1-5) for Criticality, Accessibility, Recuperability, Vulnerability, Effect, and Recognizability.

3. Sum the Scores: Calculate the total score for each target.

4. Prioritize: Focus on the targets with the highest scores, balancing operational feasibility and strategic impact.

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Conclusion

The CARVER method offers a structured and objective framework for strategic targeting, enabling decision-makers to evaluate potential targets systematically and maximize operational impact. While CARVER is highly effective, its principles can scale to vastly more complex models, capable of processing massive OSINT datasets to uncover deeper insights.

The Kursk and Dnipro examples underscore the power of this approach in guiding decisions within intricate scenarios.

Have you applied the CARVER method or explored advanced targeting models driven by OSINT? Share your experiences and thoughts in the comments—I’d love to learn from your perspective!